ENGYE

Calibration

Judgment, measured.

Stated confidence against realized pass rate, over 365 scored matches. Bonds are priced from this curve.

025%50%75%100%perfect calibration.50.60.70.80.90.95stated confidence (bucket)

Each bar is a stated-confidence bucket; height is the realized pass rate; opacity tracks sample size. Perfect calibration sits on the dashed line — the broker's stated confidence is the observed pass rate. Bonds are priced from this curve.

model groq/gpt-oss-120b · 365 scored · per-model tabs appear once a second model clears n = 20